Exxon Mobil Earnings Preview: Second Quarter 2009

Exxon Mobil [[XOM]] is scheduled to report their second quarter 2009 results before the market opens on Thursday, July 30. Based on our analysis, we at EarningsPreviews.com are expecting XOM to report better than expected results that exceed Wall Street’s consensus expectations.


Analyst Expectations

We are forecasting EPS of $.99. This would represent a 51% decline in earnings from last year’s $2.03 EPS in the same period. The current analyst consensus estimates calls for earnings of $.94 per share.


Exxon Mobil’s earnings are guaranteed to decline against year-ago levels as oil prices were down 52% in the second quarter. However, the green shoots of an economic recovery has been pushing oil prices higher lately, and the price of oil increased 38% compared to the first quarter. The rising price of oil along with better than expected quarterly results out of Occidental Petroleum [[OXY]] and Noble Corp [[NE]] all point to a stronger than expected quarter for Exxon.


Oil prices have seen increased volatility lately, but are inching back up to $70 per barrel. While comparables will be much easier in the second half of the year, it is likely that oil prices will remain rang-bound for the next few months.


Share Performance

Since the beginning of the year, Exxon Mobil’s shares have declined 10%. In 2008, Exxon’s shares only fell 15% and managed to outperform the 34% decline in the Dow Jones industrial average.



Shares are now trading at 11x consensus 2010 EPS estimates. This is a premium to the relative valuations of their peer group. With higher dividend yields and more attractive valuation multiples, Chevron [[CVX]] and Conoco Phillips [[COP]] both appear to be more attractive investments than Exxon Mobil right now.


Recommendation: Hold with a $70 price target.


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